Click here to look at how traders on Wall Street in New York eat, according to this Bloomberg report. I cannot speak for the breakfast and lunch places in the report, but I have eaten at the Smith and Wollensky’s in New York and Chicago. Steak with lobster on the side – I approve, but my cardiologist may not be so enthusiastic. As to my favorite places to eat in Chicago, my friend Craig Glicken, then a trader in the NASDAQ pit at the CME, and I used to go to lunch at Nick’s Fish Market, Smith and Wollensky’s and at Shaw’s Crab House. I remember going for Nick’s $20 lunch special and spending $100 with no alcohol. We used to spend the afternoon in Shaw’s Bar sampling every variety of oyster on the menu. Those were the days!

Twice a year, the Federal Reserve Chairman gives a report to, first, the House Banking Committee and, then usually the next day, to the Senate Banking Committee.

This testimony was started during the Carter-era as part of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. It continues twice a year, two days in February and again two days in July. These are low-probability days to trade as the market jumps every time Bernanke says one thing and, then another.

My advice is that these four Humphrey-Hawkins days are good days to take off from trading guilt-free.

I doubt many traders would disagree with me when I say “This is tough!” In fact this is about as bad as I have ever seen it for short term trading and understandably many traders are feeling disillusioned. There is every reason to feel disillusioned, it is our job to trade but the markets are not conducive to providing payment for our efforts.

But there are two reasons to keep our spirits up as much as possible: There is a simple formula for working through such times, and Better times are on the way

Simon’s survival formula Read the rest of this entry »

(click here to see the video if picture does not appear below)

When you watch this video, you are likely to be amazed that this guy actually jumps off a cliff and flies through the air.

But, that is just part of the story.

Watch the entire video and see all of the planning that goes into it and look at the after analysis. He does not “just” jump off a cliff and hope for the best.

Everything he does is according to his well-thought plan.

Success in trading requires every bit as much planning, but most traders just “jump off the cliff” with no real plan.

They just the hope that things will work out.

Of course, without the kind of detailed written trading plan that is necessary (and that I teach in my Professional Trader Mentoring Program), traders are just jumping off a cliff and hoping.

Can you picture yourself as James Bond in a tuxedo sitting at the Baccarat table at the casino in Monte Carlo with a beautiful girl by your side?

I can. The first time I was ever in a casino, I wanted to be just like James Bond. Read the rest of this entry »

I hope that you and your family enjoy a wonderful holiday season together.

My thanks to all of you who have made 2011 another successful year as we have grown together.

For me, the best part of my mentoring is that I get to help serious traders advance in their trading and along to way they become my friends. Thank you all for your friendship.

Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2012,

Hello Jeff: This is a quick note before the year is over just to THANK YOU for a wonderful experience in 2011 and to wish you and your family the VERY BEST FOR 2012!!!!. So far getting to know you and being able to work with you has been a great experience for me.  I am looking forward to continue working in 2012 and to keep in touch after the program is completed! THANKS one more time and BE WELL, Ernesto.

Several years ago, I attended a luncheon meeting at the Economics Club of Chicago in which Bill Gates spoke.

I had never heard Gates speak in person and I was ready to hear all about the newest software and latest technology.

Much to my surprise, all Gates talked about was what he called “data mining”.

Gates thought data mining was important. He said that by analyzing data collected throughout your business, you could find revealing insights leading to improvement.

Although I did not fully understand the importance of data mining at the time, every year since then I have seen dramatic examples of how mining the data from your trading can lead you to important discoveries.

One dramatic example Read the rest of this entry »

I have heard dozens of traders lament that the market is fixed.

They believe the deck is stacked against them.

I have a very different view of the market.

I believe the market is designed to pay you money.

I agree the market is fixed – that the deck is stacked.

It is stacked in your favor if you do three things:

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone I know who owns a dog thinks that their dog is the smartest dog that ever lived.

They think their dog remembers everything that happens.

Take my neighbor’s dog Fritz as an example.  Fritz is smart, but his short term memory is hazy at best and his long term memory is almost nonexistent. The markets have a memory just like Fritz.

The more in the past a price is, the less likely it is to be helpful in making trading decisions.

However, just like a dog owner’s belief that his dog remembers things, many traders memorize past prices in the hope that the market will repeat itself in the future.

Traders have told me triumphantly that the market bounced off last Tuesday’s lows or rallied to Friday’s high.

Maybe it did.

But Read the rest of this entry »