I have heard dozens of traders lament that the market is fixed.

They believe the deck is stacked against them.

I have a very different view of the market.

I believe the market is designed to pay you money.

I agree the market is fixed – that the deck is stacked.

It is stacked in your favor if you do three things:

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Everyone I know who owns a dog thinks that their dog is the smartest dog that ever lived.

They think their dog remembers everything that happens.

Take my neighbor’s dog Fritz as an example.  Fritz is smart, but his short term memory is hazy at best and his long term memory is almost nonexistent. The markets have a memory just like Fritz.

The more in the past a price is, the less likely it is to be helpful in making trading decisions.

However, just like a dog owner’s belief that his dog remembers things, many traders memorize past prices in the hope that the market will repeat itself in the future.

Traders have told me triumphantly that the market bounced off last Tuesday’s lows or rallied to Friday’s high.

Maybe it did.

But Read the rest of this entry »

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To view the contents of this post, you must be authenticated and have the required access level.

To view the contents of this post, you must be authenticated and have the required access level.

To view the contents of this post, you must be authenticated and have the required access level.