The market has the memory of a dog!

Fritz the wonder dog!Everyone I know who owns a dog thinks that their dog is the smartest dog that ever lived.

They think their dog remembers everything that happens.

Take my neighbor’s dog Fritz as an example.  Fritz is smart, but his short term memory is hazy at best and his long term memory is almost nonexistent.

The markets have a memory just like Fritz.

The more in the past a price is, the less likely it is to be helpful in making trading decisions.

However, just like a dog owner’s belief that his dog remembers things, many traders memorize past prices in the hope that the market will repeat itself in the future.

Traders have told me triumphantly that the market bounced off last Tuesday’s lows or rallied to Friday’s high.

Maybe it did.

But is this occasional return to a past price really helpful in making trading decisions?

After all, there are so many supposedly important price points in the past that the market is likely to randomly bounce off seemingly important points again and again.  But, how can you know which prices from the past are important and which are not?

My answer is that looking too far in the past for indications of where the market will head is wasted energy.

Instead, I believe that the market moves in waves.  It rallies and retraces and rallies again until the rally exhausts and it sells off, retracing again and again.  This is the way the market moves.  It is more likely to respect recent support and resistance than it is to care about price levels from the past.

No offense to Fritz, but the market has the memory of a dog.

Copyright © 2009-2011 by Jeff Quinto
All rights reserved
Print This Post Print This Post

Comments are closed.

About the author

Jeff Quinto has been called "America's Preeminent Futures Trading Mentor". Jeff is a 40-year veteran futures trader, former CME member and a world-class trading coach. He has coached hundreds of futures traders, including traders from Hong Kong, France, China, England, Australia, the US and Canada.

Jeff strongly believes that professional traders are world-class competitors, comparable to professional golfers, top tennis players, and Olympic athletes. None of these competitors could have achieved their top-ranked status without first having a world-class coach.

Jeff is that world-class coach for futures traders.

Free E-mail Newsletter Sign-up
Email:  
For Email Marketing you can trust

I am the first to be surprised by this outcome: I am doing something I could only dream of just five months ago. Andrea Cullati, Milan, Italy



"Your mentoring is the best antidote for unsuccessful trading and I plan to succeed so best take full advantage. Never had that kind of support from those other so-called trainers." AB



I just completed Jeff's program and without a doubt, Jeff has set me on the path to success. What he taught me in three months would have taken me years to learn. Mark, CPA CFA



“Jeff, your enthusiasm is contagious. I have never had more fun trading until now. Mentoring with you was a fantastic experience” Gregor Cotman, Slovenia



“Jeff, you are the perfect trading coach with your years of trading experience, your years of coaching traders, and your years of being a great person to talk with.” Rob Wilkes



“His style is completely professional, so the critiques of my trading development are completely objective and I believe that’s why I’m evolving as a successful trader.” Rob Rogers, Chicago



“Jeff, as a mentor I’ve found you to be outstanding. You believe in people and strive to create successful traders… Thanks for your mentorship” Robert Eggleston



"Thank you for a truly valuable program" Barry N. Crockett
Log In
Resources & Friends







Click here to get a free demo of Ninja Trader
You can get a free demo of Ninja Trader by clicking here

Click here to go to TraderKingdom.com To go to TraderKingdom.com click here



A word about risk
Trading futures contracts may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose a substantial amount of money in a very short period of time. The amount you may lose is potentially unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally deposit with your broker. This is because trading is highly leveraged, with a relatively small amount of money used to establish a position in assets having a much greater value. If you are uncomfortable with this level of risk, you should not trade these contracts.
For a more detailed explanation of the risk from futures and options trading click here.
The author or any personnel associated with aforementioned makes no warranties of any kind, expressed, implied or statutory concerning the data or information provided on the following Web Pages. The opinions expressed in these webpages are the opinions of the author and do not necesssarily represent the opinions of any other entity.
Copyright © 2006 - 2018 by Jeff Quinto All Rights Reserved
JeffQuinto.com, Electronic Futures Trader and ProfessionalFuturesMentoring.com are educational in nature and do not provide brokerage services or make investment recommendations. Professional Trader Mentoring Program, Professional Trader Masters Program and ProfessionalTraderMentoring.com are trademarks of Jeff Quinto dba Electronic Futures Trader