Gary Hurlbut describes his outlier day (I predict that this is the first of many)
In the three months prior to my outlier day, I had made 191 scalping trades using the 4×4 tactic in which I tried to make 4 ticks before loosing 4 ticks. My net result for this period was -29 ticks.
Four days before my outlier day, I started trading a “runner” in addition to the 4×4 scalp trade. Those 4 days resulted in -3 ticks.
Several days before my outlier day, I stopped trading after 45 minutes because the market was moving so fast that I had made four trades in 45 minutes and felt like I didn’t know what I was doing. I stopped trading – looking forward to talking to Jeff about what to do in that situation. Jeff told me to keep using the same setup and, as long as the market rewarded me, continue to trade.
On December 11, my first trade was at 9:03AM, for a 27 tick profit; my second trade was at 9:09AM for a 26 tick profit; my third trade was at 9:25AM for a 4 tick profit; my fourth at 9:38AM for a 2 tick profit; fifth at 9:55AM for a 13 tick profit and 6th at 10:13AM for a 24 tick profit.
By 10:20AM, I was positive 96 ticks!
I subsequently made 6 more trades including 1 scratch and 5 straight losers, for a net of 72 ticks for the morning session.
I have several thoughts/observations about that wonderful day:
1. It was a very fast day, but I was ready for it, and handled it just like a normal day, thanks to Jeff’s preparing me for such an event.
2. This one day took me from being negative 32 ticks over 3 months to being positive 40 ticks. It doesn’t take many of these days to make you “well”.
3. It is very difficult if not impossible to make money over a long period with scalp trades (you need to have a runner).
4. You need to be in the market as much as you can be. (I could have missed this day altogether).
5. This experience makes me realize what potential there is in trading. Sure, to a degree this was an anomaly, but after reviewing past months’ charts, I can see that this happens regularly to varying degrees.
6. It pays to have a proper setup and to follow your rules.